Why The Scottish ‘No’ Vote Makes Uk Withdrawal From The Eu Less Likely

Steve Peers

Yesterday’s ‘No’ to Scottish independence is evidently pregnant get as well as firstly for Scotland itself, as well as and so the balance of the United Kingdom, given the constitutional reforms that produce got been promised inwards its wake. But it every bit good has broader consequences for the UK’s relations amongst the European Union. In short, the ‘No’ vote has, at get sight, significantly reduced the likelihood of the UK leaving the European Union inwards the close future.

Part of the ground for that is political. Scotland elects real few Conservatives, as well as is the to the lowest degree favourable Earth inwards Britain for the UK Independence Party. So the ‘No’ vote agency that the exclusively 2 parties which (for now) favour an in/out plebiscite on the UK’s membership of the European Union volition produce got a smaller pct of seats inwards the House of Commons. In particular, since it is less probable that the Conservative political party volition produce got a bulk of seats or shape the largest party, it is less probable that at that spot volition hold upwards a plebiscite inwards the get place.

In the lawsuit that a plebiscite is held, Scotland’s ‘No’ vote agency that the relatively to a greater extent than pro-EU vote inwards Scotland would hold upwards counted inwards that vote, as well as the odds on a bulk inwards favour of ‘Brexit’ are thus reduced a little.  

But at that spot is a farther lesson to hold upwards learned from the Scottish result. While the ‘Yes’ declaration could depict upon the patriotism of the Scottish people, as well as their antipathy to beingness ruled past times a Conservative regime which they had never voted for, the ’No’ side successfully raised concerns most the economical touching of withdrawal from the UK, as well as questioned whether the assumptions of the ‘Yes’ side most the post-independence scenario were accurate.

There are obvious parallels amongst the Brexit debate. Of course, about of the specific issues which loomed large inwards Scotland (currency as well as the introduction of edge controls) would non hold upwards relevant to the Brexit debate, since the UK already retains its ain powers on these issues. But the underlying economical uncertainty is the same. The debate every bit to whether Scotland could move an European Union Member State if it left the UK would produce got a parallel inwards the debate every bit to whether the UK could obtain a gratuitous merchandise bargain amongst the European Union if it left.

While about appear to believe that the Treaties guarantee that a Member State which leaves the European Union is automatically entitled to a gratuitous merchandise bargain amongst the Union, this isn’t correct. Article l TEU (the dominion which governs withdrawal from the EU) states that at that spot must hold upwards an understanding betwixt the European Union as well as the withdrawing State ‘setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal’, simply ‘taking trouble organization human relationship of the framework for its futurity human relationship amongst the Union’. There’s no guarantee every bit to what shape those relations volition take.

It’s probable that if a Brexit plebiscite were contemplated, at to the lowest degree another Member States would dot that they were unwilling to concur to a real generous gratuitous merchandise understanding amongst the UK. Arguably, they would hold upwards bluffing, since the UK has a merchandise deficit amongst other Member States, as well as so it would hold upwards inwards their involvement to ensure continued access to the UK market. But similarly inwards the Scottish referendum, the ‘Yes’ side argued that the UK political parties were bluffing, threatening or scare mongering when they refused to concur to a currency union, as well as that all Member States would chop-chop concur to Scottish membership of the European Union on the price which the UK currently enjoys. Obviously they did non convince plenty Scottish voters of this – as well as the opponents of the European Union would seem upwards a similar hurdle inwards the Brexit referendum.

One characteristic of the Brexit plebiscite would produce got no equivalent amongst yesterday’s vote: the number of the UK’s merchandise amongst tertiary countries. Undeniably, afterwards Brexit the UK would hold upwards gratuitous to sign whatever merchandise deals it wished amongst non-EU countries. In principle, then, the UK could sign merchandise deals amongst countries which the European Union hadn’t signed an understanding with, every bit good every bit to a greater extent than favourable merchandise deals amongst those countries which did produce got a bargain amongst the European Union (the European Union has gratuitous merchandise deals already amongst dozens of countries, if you lot count its association agreements, all of which render for gratuitous trade).  

But of course, this would depend on the willingness of those tertiary countries to sign such a deal. It’s difficult to come across why those tertiary States who already produce got a bargain amongst the European Union would hold upwards willing to offering a to a greater extent than favourable version of the same bargain to the UK. Those tertiary States which didn’t produce got a bargain amongst the European Union mightiness conceivably hold upwards willing to sign one, but they would in all likelihood hold upwards unwilling to brand such an offering inwards advance of the plebiscite result, to avoid interfering amongst the UK’s as well as the EU’s affairs. So every bit amongst the Scottish referendum, the anti-EU side would produce got to construct an declaration for withdrawal upon a highly hypothetical laid of circumstances.

Moreover, i segment of populace thought – those voters who dislike major gratuitous merchandise agreements, inwards item amongst the USA – would produce got no existent selection opened upwards to them. They would produce got to lead betwixt the EU’s gratuitous merchandise bargain amongst the USA (which would either hold upwards inwards the procedure of ratification or nonetheless nether negotiation; the European Union doesn’t commonly simply cancel merchandise negotiations) on the i hand, as well as a UK/USA gratuitous merchandise deal, every bit negotiated past times the Conservative political party and/or UKIP, on the other.

One telephone substitution ingredient which worked inwards favour of the ‘Yes’ side inwards Scotland – although evidently non plenty – was the negativity of the ’No’ side. But inwards a Brexit referendum, the anti-EU side would endure from this factor. The pro-EU side would (presumably) hold upwards able to dot to a renegotiated organization amongst the EU, which is essentially a positive argument.

Finally, it mightiness hold upwards argued that a crucial departure betwixt the Scottish plebiscite as well as a Brexit plebiscite is the forcefulness of the mutual bonds which many Scottish people experience that they percentage amongst the balance of the UK. Undoubtedly the British populace every bit a whole does non produce got such warm feelings towards the EU. 

But as well as so again, neither does the balance of the European Union do every bit much every bit ability over the UK every bit Westminster does over Scotland. The European Union didn’t drag the UK into an unpopular state of war – the Blair regime did that to itself. The European Union doesn’t laid taxation rates as well as welfare rates for the UK, every bit the UK does for Scotland. In particular, the European Union has never imposed a police push clit which generated every bit much opposition every bit the early on imposition of the poll taxation inwards Scotland, when Scots became lab rats to exam Mrs. Thatcher’s most unpopular policy. If the sick volition created past times that determination inwards Scotland tin dissipate, it’s difficult to come across how a greater grade of anger could hold upwards generated against the EU.

Barnard & Peers: chapter 3

Share this post