Scottish Independence: How Would It Affect The Uk’S Relations Amongst The Eu?

Steve Peers

With the Scottish plebiscite on independence at nowadays imminent, in addition to a surge inwards the ‘Yes’ vote at nowadays putting the pro-independence side ahead inwards or so thought polls, it’s a proficient fourth dimension to re-examine the affect that Scottish independence would possess got on the European Union – especially equally regards the European Union membership of both Scotland in addition to the ease of the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland (the ‘rUK’).

At the outset, Scottish independence would hateful that 4 of import events would hap to a greater extent than or less simultaneously: Scottish/rUK negotiations on their futurity relationship; Scottish negotiations to (re)join the EU; United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland renegotiation of its European Union membership; in addition to the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland full general election. The showtime 2 events are solely unprecedented, piece the tertiary (UK renegotiation of European Union membership) has only happened 1 time earlier (in 1974-5), nether rather dissimilar circumstances.

The final lawsuit (the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland election) is commonplace, but over again the circumstances would locomote profoundly dissimilar than usual. In item the loss of 59 Scottish seats from the House of Commons would probable alter the final result of the election, given that Scotland unremarkably votes far to a greater extent than heavily inwards favour of the Labour Party than the ease of the country. But if the election goes ahead equally planned inwards May 2015, the loss of Scottish seats would non accept number until the next year, if independence goes ahead equally planned inwards saltation 2016.

These 4 events are closely related to each other. For instance, the final result of the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland election volition create upward one's heed the rUK’s negotiation spot with an independent Scotland. It volition also create upward one's heed whether the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland attempts to renegotiate its European Union membership at all. It should locomote recalled that renegotiation is the spot of the Conservative party, but non (as things stand) of the Liberal Democrat or Labour party. So only a Conservative bulk would surely final result inwards a renegotiation.

Further pregnant developments are possible, too. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 ‘Yes’ vote inwards Scotland mightiness final result inwards David Cameron’s resignation, or attempts past times or so of his political party members to take him. The United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland Independence Party is probable to win its showtime Commons spot inwards an Oct by-election.

So no-one tin realistically predict with whatever certainty how things would educate afterwards a ‘yes’ vote. The fundamental inquiry of whether Scotland could rejoin the European Union has already been discussed inwards a previous weblog post (as has the number of immigration betwixt Scotland in addition to rUK). The focus of this post service is thus on 1 issue: the affect of a ‘Yes’ vote on the UK’s relations with the EU.

The starting betoken hither is Scotland’s relations with the rUK. Trade with the ease of the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland (as good equally the ease of the European Union has a whole) is manifestly crucial to Scotland. Indeed, a fundamental characteristic of the ‘Yes’ motion is the declaration that zero would actually modify inwards this regard, whereas the ‘No’ side has argued that relations with the rUK in addition to the European Union would probable locomote jeopardised afterwards independence.

Clearly, the ‘Yes’ side seems to locomote winning this argument. Apparently they possess got been able to convince an increasing number of voters that the ‘No’ side declaration is a bluff which tin locomote called.

Is this declaration a bluff? Dissecting the number objectively, in that location is proficient ground (from its betoken of view) for the ‘No’ side to advert to the risks of independence upward until the plebiscite appointment (although politically speaking, making this declaration seems at nowadays to locomote backfiring for them).

But inwards the lawsuit of a ‘Yes’ vote, the rUK ought to consider what it inwards its ain best interests. It seems real clear that, given the economical importance of Scotland to the ease of the UK, the rUK ought to seek to keep equally closed an economical human relationship with the ease of Scotland equally it perchance could. That has domestic implications (as regards a currency union), but also implications for Scotland’s human relationship with the EU: it volition overwhelmingly locomote inwards the interests of the ease of the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland to advocate Scotland’s continued membership of the European Union on damage equivalent to the UK’s electrical flow membership. Indeed, this is the crux of the ‘Yes’ side’s declaration on this point: the ‘No’ side is threatening non merely Scotland but also itself. That threat merely isn’t credible.

It is possible, however, that the rUK volition non deed inwards its best interest. Voters inwards the ease of the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland may locomote resentful in addition to want to punish Scotland. Furthermore, those who wishing to renegotiate the UK’s European Union membership, or withdraw the ease of the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland from the EU, may non possess got an involvement (for tactical reasons) inwards supporting Scottish European Union membership. The showtime grouping (the renegotiators) would expression upward a hard dilemma, because they would possess got to expend their express goodwill with the European Union non merely on 1 major projection (renegotiation) but a instant projection (Scottish membership) at the same time.

Provided that the renegotiators truly want the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland to rest purpose of the EU, in addition to so it nevertheless makes feel for them to force for both at the same time. After all, piece the ease of the European Union already takes upward a large part of UK’s trade, that part would locomote larger soundless afterwards Scottish independence – if an independent Scotland joined the EU.

Yet this inwards plough explains why those who wishing to withdraw from the European Union mightiness seek to block Scottish membership of it, either direct (by refusing rUK consent) or indirectly (by stirring upward opposition with countries similar Spain, which possess got their ain regional independence movements to fighting with). Of course, if the United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland does exit the EU, it tin no longer block Scottish membership of it. But inwards that case, Scots would no longer locomote equally swell to bring together the EU, since joining the European Union would in addition to so perchance impede its merchandise with the remaining United Kingdom of Great Britain in addition to Northern Ireland (although this assessment would locomote depend on the damage of an EU/rUK costless merchandise understanding – if in that location is one).

Indeed, or so English linguistic communication Eurosceptics mightiness good fantasise that Scotland mightiness locomote the showtime solid ground to sign a costless merchandise understanding with the newly ‘independent’ rUK. One tin only imagine Alex Salmond’s expression upward at that signing ceremony.

Barnard & Peers: chapter 3

Share this post