Measuring The Influence Of The Advocate Full General On The Courtroom Of Jurist Of The European Union: Correlation Or Causation?
November 25, 2018
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Carlos Arrebola together with Ana Julia Mauricio (PhD students at the University of Cambridge)
‘The advocate general’s persuasion is commonly quite influential inwards helping the ECJ create upwards one's heed its cases’. ‘The persuasion does non hateful the courtroom volition automatically dismiss the legal challenge […], but almost judgments afterward endorse the seat of advocate generals’.
A quick search on The Guardian webpage reveals that it is commonly acknowledged that the Advocate General influences the Court, or that the Court follows the opinions of the Advocates General. Even conversations alongside European Union lawyers, practitioners together with academics alike are oftentimes based on the omnipresent presumption that the Advocate General influences the Court, which seems to receive got croak a truth past times repetition. However, has information been seat forrad proving this dogma? Is it truthful that the Advocates General opinions receive got such an of import weight inwards the judgments of the Court? Answering these questions becomes to a greater extent than relevant than always every bit the issue of Advocates General increases, together with thence does the workload of the Court. Answers to these questions are exactly what nosotros gear upwards out to discovery inwards our recent report ‘An Econometric Analysis of the Influence of the AdvocateGeneral on the Court of Justice of the European Union’, similar a shot available on SSRN, together with shortly to last published inwards the Cambridge Journal of International together with Comparative Law (2016) 5(1).
One of the laid about hurdles that nosotros had to overcome inwards this report was defining the damage that were used, such every bit ‘influence’ or ‘following’. What does it hateful for the Court to follow the Advocate General: would reaching the same resultant suffice? However, the Advocate General together with the Court could come upwards the same conclusion albeit next a unlike legal reasoning. What if a item instance had such a clear solution that it would non last legally acceptable to create upwards one's heed differently? Would the Court last next the Advocate General then, or would the Court last deciding regardless of the persuasion of the Advocate General? We realised that what underpins these questions is the real essence betwixt correlation together with causation.
In this study, nosotros were specially interested inwards trying to industrial plant life causation, i.e., nosotros wanted know how oftentimes the Court makes a determination based exclusively on the persuasion of the Advocate General, every bit opposed to other perhaps influential factors. This would give us a mensurate of the actual influence that the figure of the Advocate General has on the Court of Justice. We tested the hypothesis of whether Advocates General opinions are real influential to the Court’s decisions, or whether this claim could last disproven with data, together with the human relationship betwixt the Court together with the Advocate General is based to a greater extent than on a dialogic conversation than inwards a human relationship of influence. The existing literature gave some measures for correlation betwixt the opinions of the Advocate General together with the judgments of the Court using descriptive statistics, showing that they coincided to a greater extent than or less 70% of the time.
In monastic enjoin to verify the accuracy of such claims together with give together with evidence-based reply to our queries, nosotros gathered information spanning xx years of actions for annulment earlier the Court of Justice. In improver to the resultant suggested past times the Advocate General together with the actual resultant of a case, nosotros collected information regarding several variables that could receive got influenced why the Court solved a instance inwards a item way. For example, nosotros selected variables representing whether the solution of a instance was clear. We recorded the subject-matter of the case, given that certainly areas of European Union constabulary mightiness last less controversial than others. Accounting for such variables, nosotros eliminated from our mensurate of influence what is really a coincidence caused past times external elements that are unrelated to the persuasion of the Advocate General. We too included inwards our database variables relating to who the Advocate General was; who the claimant was; the composition of the Court; together with the type of deed that was beingness reviewed.
We admit that to a greater extent than variables could receive got been included to farther refine this econometric study. However, it is non possible to tape all such variables, for example, the mood of the gauge at the fourth dimension of the decision. Nevertheless, nosotros designed an econometric report together with used regression models that gave a robust mensurate of influence. In particular, our models determined a statistically pregnant resultant on the variable of involvement (the persuasion of the Advocate General). Our findings advise that the Court of Justice is to a greater extent than or less 67% to a greater extent than probable to annul an deed if the Advocate General advises the Court to annul than if the Advocate General recommends the Court to dismiss the instance or declare it inadmissible.
Our results reinforce claims that the Advocate General is a powerful figure inwards the makeup of the Court of Justice, influencing the evolution of European Union law. These findings heighten several questions for farther enquiry every bit regards judicial independence together with the relevance of the figure of the Advocate General. For instance, if the opinions of the Advocates General receive got such a determinant influence inwards the Court’s decisions, tin shipping away 1 state that the Court is genuinely independent? Is it relevant that the identity of the Advocate General inwards each instance is publicised, or is the Advocate General insulated from external pressures? Issues similar these are briefly discussed at the cease of our article. Ultimately, nosotros promise to receive got contributed to an evidence-based struggle on this topic, providing a grounded footing for futurity discussions together with judicial reform.
Barnard & Peers: chapter 10
Photo credit: inforrm.wordpress.com
