Is Brexit Inevitable? The Uk’S Eu Membership Afterwards The Full General Election

Steve Peers

The unexpected election of a Conservative bulk regime inwards the Great Britain raises or therefore telephone substitution questions nigh the UK’s continued membership of the European Union. As a commencement reply to the election results, I’ll verbalise over hither inwards plough the issues relating to the plebiscite as well as the renegotiation.

The Brexit plebiscite

What are the key issues of regulation concerning the upcoming referendum?

First of all, let’s get down with the obvious point: the novel regime volition implement the Conservative party’s policy of attempting to renegotiate the UK’s membership of the European Union, followed past times an in-out (‘Brexit’) plebiscite on the results of the plebiscite past times the destination of 2017. Influenza A virus subtype H5N1 regime nib to this effect volition probable live swiftly introduced; it volition in all likelihood live similar to the Private Member’s Bill tabled on this number inwards the final parliament, which was supported past times the Conservative party.

Secondly, every bit I blogged last year, the opposition of many pro-Europeans to a plebiscite was both a error inwards principle, as well as a tactical error too. There’s clearly no signal inwards expending whatsoever political unloosen energy on resisting a plebiscite whatsoever further.  The number for the pro-EU side is now how to win the referendum.

Thirdly, the thought of trying to expand the voting franchise to embrace all European Union citizens living inwards the Great Britain is a moot signal inwards low-cal of the outcome of the election. That’s precisely because the Conservatives receive got the votes to force through (as they proposed inwards the prior Bill) a plebiscite based on the park Great Britain full general election franchise (UK, Irish Gaelic as well as Commonwealth citizens living inwards the UK, as well as Great Britain citizens who receive got lived abroad for less than 15 years). Indeed, every bit I blogged before this year, land I empathize with European Union citizens living inwards the Great Britain who would similar to vote inwards a Brexit referendum, it would in 1 lawsuit to a greater extent than live both incorrect inwards regulation as well as a tactical error to expand the franchise for that referendum.

Thirdly, there’s no exceptional argue to assume, every bit or therefore within as well as exterior the European Union do, that the anti-EU side volition win the referendum. Rather the contrary: according to blogged nigh or therefore of these points earlier, as well as volition live coming dorsum to them over the months ahead.

Thirdly, the purpose of other political parties inwards the Great Britain volition live crucial. As I already mentioned, Cameron mightiness necessitate their back upwards inwards the lawsuit of a rebellion past times Eurosceptic backbenchers. Tempting every bit it mightiness live to displace problem for Cameron, it’s non inwards the interests of pro-EU parties to jeopardise the UK’s European Union membership, which they support. Because the Conservative political party has a majority, other parties volition receive got no straight influence on the renegotiation every bit such. But they receive got an indirect importance, because of their key purpose inwards ensuring a Yes vote inwards the Brexit referendum. This tin hardly live secured past times Tory votes alone, given that the political party attracts nether 40% of the vote, including many anti-EU voters.

This has implications for the content of the renegotiation. Many Tories would honey to meet a renewed opt-out from the social chapter; but many voters on the left mightiness turn down staying inwards the European Union on that dry reason (even if it could live negotiated with other Member States). Anything beyond a pocket-sized curtailment of the EU’s working fourth dimension Directive (for instance, overturning the wacky CJEU illustration constabulary counting doctors’ slumber every bit ‘working time’) could peril an anti-EU vote.

Furthermore, this agency that pro-EU opposition parties volition receive got to portion a platform with (some) Tories – fifty-fifty though nosotros tin live for certain that subsequently 2 years of Tory regime in that location volition live utter loathing of that idea. But a ‘no’ to the European Union volition non forcefulness the Tory regime out, or fifty-fifty displace Cameron to resign (it’s widely assumed that he would resign every bit Tory leader shortly subsequently the Brexit vote anyway). And the most fervent supporters of the gratuitous displace of European Union citizens volition receive got to receive got that or therefore curtailment of gratuitous displace rights is an inevitable number of the renegotiation. Without it, in that location volition presently live no gratuitous displace betwixt the Great Britain as well as European Union at all.

As for the anti-EU parties (mainly UKIP as well as a big chunk of the Tories, with a smattering of politicians from other parties), the key number volition live whether they tin sell a coherent as well as plausible option to the UK’s European Union membership. This is or therefore other number which I volition come upwards dorsum to, since it raises many legal issues. But suffice it to tell that the simplest option to European Union membership (the European Economic Area) is unattractive to Eurosceptics because it all the same provides for gratuitous displace of people. Any other option volition entail a negotiation of a novel understanding with the other Member States. But the anti-EU side volition non only receive got to concur a mutual sentiment on what this would entail, but also convince the populace that other Member U.S.A. volition necessarily receive got it. Compare to the Scottish independence plebiscite final year, where the SNP regime was able position forrard a unmarried detailed innovation on what independence would expression similar (I doubtfulness that the diverse Eurosceptics could easily concur on the equivalent) but could non as well as therefore (as I blogged at the time) convince plenty Scottish voters that the remaining Great Britain would concur to it. This may seek out to live the Achilles heel of the anti-EU side.

Finally, a to a greater extent than full general point. The resultant of the full general election is undoubtedly a peachy daze as well as disappointment to non-Tories similar myself. But the prospect of a Brexit plebiscite offers us a withdraw chances to struggle (alongside pro-EU Tories) for of import things nosotros believe in, good before the side past times side full general election: job rights, environmental as well as consumer protection, human rights, brute welfare, openness to the exterior dry reason and economic prosperity through merchandise inwards goods as well as services as well as gratuitous displace of people.  Let's seek to low-cal this candle, non simply curse the darkness.

 

*This postal service is linked to enquiry for my forthcoming book from Hart Publishing – Brexit: The Legal Framework for Withdrawal from the European Union or Renegotiation of European Union Membership

 

Barnard & Peers: chapter 2

Image: ConservativeHome.com

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